今次要短評的股﹐Blog主之前都已經寫過佢﹐也都有講過佢呢一個業務一直都係表現唔太好﹐到左而家最終都係出事﹐搞到要盈警。隻股票就係中電(2.HK)
(來源: aastock)
Blog主係之前拆解中電業務個陣(傳送門)
已經有講到澳洲的業務一直都比唔到應有的盈利﹐一直都只不過係得個做。13年中電就已經做過一次減值﹐個陣就減左30億。到左6年後就再黎多一次減值﹐預期就要減60-70億。原因就話澳洲聯邦政府管制個電價﹐而再加埋發電量因為煤炭供應同電廠維修而下降。但原來呢樣野係今年5月公佈的2019年季度簡報(連結)已經有講到﹐仲講到明會重大影響到未來的收入。
(來源:2019年季度簡報(1月至3月) 連結)
而更重要的資料﹐就當然又唔係一般的文件或者新聞到搵到﹐而係中電同分析員的電話會議的講稿。呢篇英文稿(連結)就好值得大家去睇下到底而家澳洲的情況係點﹐Blog主就唔一一copy晒出黎。相反﹐關於本地業務同埋整體公司業績﹐Blog主就想節錄出黎比大家睇下﹐等大家唔會係中電出中期業績個陣嚇親
Dennis Ip (Daiwa Securities):…… Finally, I understand that
there is not much cash impact and the only impact probably will be the loss of
the retail earnings happening in the future. I just want to make sure that our dividend
policy would not be massively impacted by this retail business in
EnergyAustralia. Thank you.
Richard Lancaster (中電CEO):
….Your third question was, I recall, on the dividend and the implications for
the dividend. Clearly, we have looked at 2019 and if you look at the business
as a whole we will be seeing a reduction in earnings from our Hong Kong
business because of the lower permitted return. We also will see a reduction in
India because of the sell-down to CDPQ. We had taken all of that into
consideration, and yet we still had the confidence to increase our dividend at
the end of first quarter, at 3%. Now, I cannot make any statements on behalf of
the Board, but when you look at the materiality of this in the totality of our
business, whilst the impairment is quite a large number, it is non-cash. I will
leave it to you to judge, but in terms of the cash impact on our business, it
is relatively small in the overall scheme of our business.
講到香港同印度的盈利都有下跌﹐但股息就會有3%的增長(17到18年整體係3.7%增長)。仲話今次的減值唔會對整體業務唔會有大影響。
Wilson Ling (HSBC):… Just one question actually. For the
past couple of years, CLP has been engaged in a value restoration strategy in
Australia, which CLP has achieved by FY18. But due to this policy change in
Australia, it could mean that we are taking a step back from that, meaning
possibly a lower ROIC generated. I just want to ask about the strategy in
Australia going forward – what are the things that CLP is going to do, maybe to
keep on growing in the segment?
Richard Lancaster: …We
do still see the value that we have in having a large customer base in
Australia, the ability to operate in two main markets, in New South Wales and
Victoria, where we have not only a strong retail business, but also a wholesale
generating portfolio that is right sized for those retail businesses. So
structurally, with a retail and wholesale business that provide that natural hedge,
we do see this being a robust business model. … Our approach for more than
three years now since 2015 is to get our business in the best possible shape –
improve customer service, lower our costs, get our business operating as efficiently
as we can and make sure we are doing everything we can to retain customers and develop
our margin through improvements in efficiency and improvements in customer service.
That remains our objective in Australia. …Going forward, a period of high prices
is not going to be welcomed by customers or by regulators; we can see that and
we understand that. High prices had been caused by a shortage of supply in a
market which sees extreme weather putting pressure on electricity demand. High
penetration of renewables coming into the system means there does need to be
some investments made to stabilise prices to reduce some of the volatility. …So,
whilst our strategy of value restoration is still key, the principles of that
are essentially the principles of doing good business in a retail business. But
we do also see a need for some investment over the coming years that will help
the business in the longer term.
簡單D講﹐姐係唔好期望澳洲係短期內會有咩重大的盈利增長﹐而早前推展的value restoration strategy就要再等下先至會見到。更重要的係最尾個句 “ But we do also see a
need for some investment over the coming years that will help the business in
the longer term.” 未來幾年仲要投資落澳洲先至可以令業務回復。
而今日明報就有篇新聞以 “當地投資「多災多難」 雅洛恩電廠連翻撥備” 去形容中電係澳洲的業務﹐準確不過。
(來源:
明報)
慶幸的係一班大行對中電都手下留情﹐只係下調目標價﹐無改變個評級﹐咁當然佢的股價就當然都受番咁上下沽壓﹐但對於中電呢隻收息股出盈警﹐市場都算仁慈﹐可能而家只係影響個面數﹐派息唔會有即時影響。
今次的短評就去到呢到﹐下次再搵其他股票同大家分享
沒有留言:
張貼留言